A RESILIENT Leader embodies determination and bravery, triumphing over challenges while upholding a clear strategic vision.
We can remain hopeful that Olly Murphy’s Strong Leader understands this, as he confronts a challenge he has yet to master to clinch victory in today’s Grade 1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle.
The feature race at Ascot – historically won by remarkable contenders like Paisley Park, Big Buck’s, and Baracouda – showcases a competitive lineup, undoubtedly bolstered by the absence of a definitive leading staying hurdler in the UK currently.
Strong Leader is certainly among the top contenders, but can he manage to run right-handed? The seven-year-old has only raced in that direction once in thirteen outings, which was at this venue where he was defeated over a shorter distance in the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle.
His pedigree does not instill much confidence either. Strong Leader is a descendant of Passing Glance, who during his sole appearance at Ascot finished a disappointing 24th in the 2002 Britannia Handicap.
The sire of his dam, Westerner, also only ventured to the Berkshire track once, where he struggled, finishing behind Papineau in the 2004 Ascot Gold Cup.
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Murphy is cautiously hopeful that direction won’t become an issue. The promising trainer remarked, “He used to tend to go a bit left-handed, so we maintained him that way. However, the only time we tried him right-handed, I’d argue that the distance was too short and leading the race played a bigger role in his defeat than the direction.”
“Let’s hope we won’t need to use that as a justification.”
Fair enough, though it’s a handy excuse to keep on standby! Strong Leader marked his return this season with a resolute victory in the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury, where his jumping was adequate but not extraordinary. This will not be an easy race.
A number of familiar rivals will contest against him, including last year’s winner Crambo, whose form dipped at the end of last season but who may still present strong each-way prospects based on his performance here last year.
Blueking d’Oroux might not be the fan-favorite among bettors, but he is the horse that bested Strong Leader here in 2023. He certainly has stamina to prove.
And then there’s The Wallpark, aiming for a five-timer for Gordon Elliott. He has climbed from a rating of 129 to 152 through those victories, and the big question is whether he can find even more improvement? His recent win at Cheltenham off a mark of 145 suggests that it isn’t far-fetched.
This race is tough to predict. Nevertheless, I’m leaning toward Crambo for at least a place finish.
On the rest of the Ascot card, which features four live races on ITV Racing, all eyes will be on Victtorino in the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase.
Matt Chapman’s ITV Racing tips
ASCOT
1.50 Jungle Boogie
2.25 Crambo (each-way)
3.00 Victtorino
3.35 Go Dante (each-way)
HAYDOCK
2.05 Famous Bridge
2.40 Lune De La Mer
If successful, he will contribute to Venetia Williams’ tally of notable Saturday TV wins, following the likes of Gemirande, Djelo, and Royale Pagaille. Not to mention Frero Banbou, who triumphed in the Rehearsal Chase.
The mount of Charlie Deutsch, Victtorino was especially impressive at Newbury on his return in the race previously known as the Hennessy, having jumped poorly yet still managed a strong finish when the race was nearly decided.
There are indicators he may fare better running right-handed, and he’s only 1lb higher in the handicap than his winning effort in this contest last year.
I’m optimistic that Murphy will secure a positive outcome at Ascot, even if it isn’t with Strong Leader.
For many, the key betting race of the day will be the concluding Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle, featuring Greatwood runner-up and third Be Aware and Dysart Enos.
Both are steadily progressing and surely up to the task. The latter is expected to show more restraint compared to his run at Cheltenham, where he was too eager.
Murphy also trains Imperial Cup winner Go Dante, who finished poorly for me in ninth during the Greatwood. However, there are reasons to believe he can improve here, almost the reverse scenario from Strong Leader.
Go Dante seems more suited to right-handed tracks, as shown by his triumph at Sandown, and he has dropped 2lb since Cheltenham. I have hopes for him to achieve better results here as an each-way bet off just 3lb higher than his winning performance at the Esher venue.
Wishing everyone a splendid Saturday and a Merry Christmas. The good news is that Boxing Day is just around the corner, and we’ll be buzzing about the King George in this paper, especially since we have formidable leaders!
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